Hedge against a falling dollar: independent financial advice.
Posted by Don Martin on Thu, Apr 21, 2011 @ 10:39 AM
To hedge against a falling dollar one investment technique is to use foreign currency denominated bond actively managed open end mutual funds. Be careful to verify that they are "unhedged". Some FX bond funds are hedged back into dollars so you get no protection from a falling dollar. Be aware the other major developed countries currencies (Euro and Yen) may perform worse than the dollar.
There are some developed countries with good currencies in resource exporting countries, Scandinavia, Switzerland. The EM countries are experiencing high inflation and to deal with that they will raise rates which will make bonds go down in value but make the currency go up, thus negating potential appreciation. If that occurs then being at the short end of the yield curve is best. Another problem is that EM bonds tend to be low credit quality around BB or B and I prefer to get A or better, but the highest are rated BBB. Also that asset class is poorly served by mutual funds with few funds being in business for over five years.
It is too hard to predict FX rates; instead one should diversify as a hedge against a dollar devaluation rather than attempt to seek a profit through short term trading. Many counterintuitive things happen in FX. Recently Turkey lowered rates to make its currency go down even though they needed to raise rates to fight inflation. There is the risk of future currency controls that would trap an investor's money inside of EM countries.
See my posts “Investments for a dollar collapse” and “Will the dollar be devalued?”
This is an example of independent financial advice.